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C00002 00002	 AUTOMATIC DELIVERY SYSTEM
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 AUTOMATIC DELIVERY SYSTEM


	An   automatic  delivery   system  is   a   system  for   the
transmission of  material objects between homes, stores, offices etc.
with as much as possible  of the convenience of the telephone  system
used for  the transmission  of information.   First we  shall discuss
how  such a system might look  to a user.   Then we shall discuss the
advantages of such as system and what it might  be worth. Finally, we
shall  propose  some  ways of  implementing  the  system  and try  to
estimate how much it might cost.

	Imagine the system to work as follows:

	1. An apartment  or home  or a department  of a  store or  an
office has  a port  into which  an object  may be put  (perhaps in  a
suitable   container)   and  a   push  button   system   for  dialing
destinations.  After a while  the object arrives at its  destination.
To relieve nervousness that I  might be wishful thinking about matter
transmission  by telekinesis etc., let  me say that I  have in mind a
mechanical system  that will transport  things through tunnels  under
the streets.

	The delivery system can be used in the following ways:

	1.  I  can send an object to a friend,  and it will arrive at
his port in a time comparable to  the time required to deliver it  by
car.

	2.  A store can send me something  bought by telephone.  They
can  send it right away,  because they don't  have to wait  to fill a
truck bound for my part of town.

	3.  If  we also have home  computer terminals and  electronic
transfer  of money  (both of  which are  easier to  realize than  the
delivery system),  and if the seller is an automated warehouse rather
than a store, then  I can order an object  at any time of the  day or
night and have it delivered immediately.

	4.    I can  send  and  receive mail  by  the  system.   Long
distance transmission gets switched to other modes of  transportation
at suitable places.

	5. I can get rid of trash by sending it to the trash place.

	6. I will  need to own fewer  things, because I will  be able
to  borrow or rent them  with less transportation overhead.   A group
of people are  more likely  to own  something in common  if they  can
readily pass it back and forth.

	7. Home delivery  of cooked meals and return  of dirty dishes
will be much more feasible than it is today.

	The  automatic delivery system will be  of special benefit to
children, the  handicapped, and old  people since  it will make  them
more  independent; it will  extend the  age and decrepitude  at which
people can live independently.  I appreciate the point  particularly,
since I expect to be quite old before the system comes into use.

	The idea  of an  automatic delivery  system is  quite old  in
science fiction,  and its advantages are apparent.   It was certainly
infeasible 60  years  ago  when  we  got our  last  batch  of  public
utilities. Let  us consider whether it  is feasible today or  will be
in the near future.

	First of  all, we shall try to devise a system that will work
with present buildings.   Something that requires new  buildings will
be quite hard to implement.

	Therefore,   imagine the following: The ports  are mounted in
outside walls or in  windows like air conditioners  are today.   This
requires minimal modification of buildings.  The  carriers do most of
their travelling  under the streets on  continuous belts or suspended
from cables,  but are independently powered by  rechargable batteries
between the under-street  system and the ports.  They  mover from the
under-street tunnel  to the building through feeder tunnels and climb
the outsides  of  the building  to and  from the  ports.   There  are
several  ways this  can  be done  having different  divisions  of the
investment between the building modification and the carrier.  If  we
want to  put  the investment  in the  carrier, then  the building  is
equipped only  with "handholds", and the  carrier climbs the building
with two suitable arms.  If  we are willing to mount cables or  rails
on the building, the carrier can be  simpler.  On the whole, it seems
to  me  that the  "handhold"  system is  better, because  it  is more
routinely adaptable to  a variety of buildings  and it will make  the
minimum change  in the  appearance of the  building.  Any  version of
the system requires  an elaborate system  for switching the  carriers
at the right time.   This can be done by a a computer  in the carrier
which communicates with the central computer controlling the system.

	An  important  characteristic  of  the  system affecting  its
utility and cost is  the size of object that  can be transmitted.   A
reasonable  size   carrier  might  be  rectangular   with  dimensions
16"x16"x48" having  an internal space 12"x12"x36".  The carrier would
change orientation as it traveled so the contents  would sometimes be
upside-down and  accelerations of say 3g might  have to be tolerated.
It would be desirable to design  the system as a whole to  accomodate
a range of sizes of carrier and so that  parts of the system could be
upgraded  to allow larger  sizes.  One  would probably want  a lot of
quite small carriers for  mail and single  small items, but the  size
mentioned above probably should be provided for in any case.

	There are some  safety considerations.  First,  there need to
be  guard  rails  to keep  people  and animals  away  from  where the
carriers come to the surface.  Second, the carrier  needs a sensor to
detect that  the next handhold  is available and  to detect excessive
resistance to its motion.  Ice,  fallen tree branches, and damage  to
buildings are the  most likely causes of  blockage.  In such  a case,
the  carrier should  stop  and call  for help.    Perhaps it  will be
desirable for the carrier to have a TV camera so that a human  in the
control station can see  what has happened and decide what  to do.  A
smart  program in  the central  computer may  be able to  decide some
cases without human help.

	The traffic  capacity  of  the system  will  be a  cause  for
concern.  If  everyone orders his dinner through  the system at once,
there may be  bottlenecks.   Capacity can be  increased by  providing
parallel  paths under  streets  and  by  having small  carriers  ride
bigger ones until they have to branch off.

	The system  is obviously most cheaply  constructed for a city
full of  new apartments,   but  it looks  feasible  even for  present
suburban areas, though at greater expense.

	How can we estimate the expense

	A  few man  years  of  mechanical,   civil,   and  electronic
engineering  could produce  an estimate  accurate within a  factor of
two with an uncertainty of a  few years in how long it would  take to
get  a   system  working  and  an  factor-of-five   estimate  of  the
development costs.  Clearly  it won't be cheap,  but I think we  will
be able to afford it in the next ten to  twenty years.  Here are some
very rough estimates.


	1.  The carrier is  perhaps the easiest  to estimate, because
it can be compared to a car.  It is much smaller than a car,   and it
spends  most of  its time  riding.   However,   it will  need a  more
complicated  control system  than a car.   Therefore  we estimate its
cost at  $500 taking into  account expected  large reductions in  the
cost of electronics.

	2.  The port.   Adding  a port  to an  old building,  we will
guess at  $500  for an  old  building and  $200  if put  into  a  new
building.  The  cost of the handholds  will depend on the  height and
shape of the building  but shouldn't be more than $200 per port.  The
cost of the feeder  from the street to  the building, we estimate  at
$1000  to $3000  depending  on  the need  to  tear  up sidewalks  and
streets.

	3.   The  communications cost is  estimated at  $100 per port
assuming it piggybacks on the telephone system.

	4. The  central computer cost  for a  city at present  prices
might be $10,000,000, but this will go down.

	5.    The  biggest cost  is  likely  to  be the  under-street
system. It includes a tunnel whose size determines the  possibilities
for expansion  in size  of  object and  volume of  flow.   It has  to
provide for two  way traffic and to carry this traffic suspended from
a cable, on a moving belt, on  cars on rails, or simply to provide  a
right of way for the carriers  if these are independently mobile.  We
shall suppose  that the carriers contain the information and computer
facilities for deciding when to switch paths.

	The cost ought to be  considerably less than the cost  of the
streets themselves  in new districts since the  carriers will be more
efficiently loaded than the cars that now provide delivery  services.
Suppose we guess  $1,000,000 per mile,  but a civil  engineering cost
study could make this more precise.

	4. Stores  and warehouses will require more elaborate loading
systems than homes or offices.  Presumably, they will be  designed to
summon carriers and load them  automatically.  Such systems will cost
from  tens to hundreds  of thousands of dollars  and perhaps millions
for institutions like the  post office, Sears Roebuck, a  railroad or
air terminal.

	Well,  suppose the technology  is ready in five years to make
an economical automatic delivery system.  (In five years,  we  expect
electronic  technology  to make  the  communication  and  computation
cheap,  but  we  don't expect  a  cost  breakthrough in  construction
technology by then.) How can  an automatic delivery system come  into
existence}

	The system  will be a  public utility and a  natural monopoly
like  the telephone system,  electric power, gas,  water, sewage, and
roads.   It  could  come  into  existence either  by  a  sequence  of
engineering  studies  by   the  government  and  establishment  of  a
government operated  system or  it  could come  into existence  as  a
regulated  utility  operated  by  private  enterprise.  No  important
public  utilities have been  established recently,   so it  will be a
new political issue.   As I see it, it  is more important to  society
that the  system be  built than who  builds it.   However,   it seems
more  likely to be built  by private enterprise, because  if it is to
be built  by the public,  there must  be overwhelming agreement  that
this is the  right way to spend government  money, and such agreement
will be hard to come by in the current competition for public  money.
The older utilities were  built by private enterprise,   because they
thought  people  would be  willing  to  pay for  the  service.   This
requires giving or selling franchises to companies formed  to provide
the  service.    It  is  not clear  that  private  enterprise  is  as
adventurous  as it  was  in the  nineteenth century.  The development
costs are  likely to be  hundreds of  millions,   perhaps even a  few
billion.

	Realization  of  the full  advantages  of automated  delivery
will require large changes in the operation of stores.  For  example,
there might come to be stores with no  premises where goods are kept.
The goods bought  at wholesale are delivered to public warehouses and
delivered to customers automatically from the warehouses.   The store
has  financial  responsibility, because  it  buys  the goods,  prices
them, advertises  them, and sells them, all on the basis of its ideas
of what  the public will  buy.   Such a  separation of the  marketing
function  from  physical   goods  handling  functions  will  increase
flexibility  and  competition  and  will  ultimately  give  consumers
greater choice.